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Ammit · Oct 25, 2023 11:18 AM

I am looking for feedback on this idea.

A common trend is members not understanding what breeding advice is for. They want it to be either an absolute judge of quality or tell them how good the foal is for that cross. How it actually works is to compare the foal against the sire, and then separately compare the foal to its dam, and if it is a good deal worse than either it fails the foal. This means that some crosses will never produce a foal that passes as one parent always drags the quality down too far.

I think how people really expect it to work is for it to tell you if this foal is a good foal for that particular cross.

Example using completely made-up numbers:

Sire has an ability of 125, dam has an ability of 95. The average ability of both parents is 100. Foals are an average of the parents plus or minus a weighted random factor. Let's say foals can be born with an ability of 92 to 117 from these parents and that the average foal is born with an ability of 109.

Right now it is impossible for this cross to ever produce a foal that passes breeding advice because even the best possible foal at 117 (a foal massively better than the dam) does not compare well to the sire.

How I think people intuitively expect breeding advice to work is for any foal that is better than average for this cross to pass. (The exact passing percentage could be dialed in) In this case, any foal that was say 110 breeding ability or better would pass breeding advice. It would make breeding advice more intuitive and more newbie friendly, plus allow bootstrap breeders access to basic testing and not have to see that untested message constantly. (I would leave strict breeding advice alone. )

I am interested to hear what you think the pros and cons of such a switch would be.

Fireflake · Oct 25, 2023 11:28 AM

I really like this idea. While I like how SBA works I think this would be super useful for people that are bootstrap breeding or just starting out and don't necessarily have horses that are evenly bred.

LumosRain · Oct 25, 2023 11:34 AM

Personally, I only have SBA on this account and rely on how strict it is. For my non premium accounts I'm not sure I'd want it messed with. I only do even breeding. So I test as a base and then comp test. I don't really bootstrap so it wouldn't benefit me. But if enough people want it changed that's fine too. :)

Lallyhop · Oct 25, 2023 11:52 AM

Hmm, I definitely think that there’s something to be said for the update. However, I do appreciate SBA being left alone. When I’m breeding one foundation to another, I really want it to be better than or at least as good as both, even when crossing A studs to Red mares - i.e. I would be disappointed if a B/red foal passed.

I would also recommend renaming them if we do go through with the change, since the current names are so similar which might add to the confusion, especially if how they work changes.

(I assume it’s too much effort to do so and might make things even more complicated, but there’s always the possibility of a third option - having three tests, two that are the basic/strict pairing of breeding advice and one that’s the new one, which would be the one free accounts/new players are encouraged to use.)

That’s my two cents, hopefully it helps! Thanks for, as always, putting in such time and effort to all these quality of life updates! :x

Ammit · Oct 25, 2023 12:07 PM

LumosRain for those who only do SBA it won't have any impact as that would not change. If you only breed even ability (most players think even generations are the same thing and it isn't!) it also won't have any impact as the net effect would be identical to how the system works now. Only for uneven breeding would it have an impact.

Lallyhop - I would strongly prefer not to add a third version because as I said to LumosRain it would work the same as it currently does most of the time.

whywishesarehorses · Oct 25, 2023 1:04 PM

I've got to ruminate on this one for a bit - I use SBA a lot, since I have access to it. I could see the appeal of this change for Bootstrap, but I'm still thinking over how it might work for evens. I think there is something to be said for the fact that it allows comparison to the parent of opposite sex as is.... Not sure what I think.

Vella · Oct 25, 2023 1:37 PM

For me, I don't think it would work very differently from how it does now, since I already rely heavily on comp testing to make sure everyone's keeping up.

The only downside I can see is that it sounds like, if you are breeding unevenly, you may end up with intact foals that are lower quality than ones that get auto-snipped from the same sire, if the mares' levels are wildly different... Like when I was first playing, and got a *star stud from the auction, and was pairing him with both basic foundies and some blue mares I also got from auction - it sounds like some of the star/blue babies might get snipped for not being "better than average" even if they are objectively better than some of the star/red babies (who are "better than average" for their pairing).

Ammit · Oct 25, 2023 1:58 PM

"I'm still thinking over how it might work for evens."

There would be zero change for how it would work for even breeding. If you are using SBA there would also be no change.

Vella - It is possible since this would evaluate each cross on its own merits, not against a cohort of siblings but I would have to do the math to figure out if it is. The higher the ability you go the smaller the range of possible foal ability outcomes (as the genetics improves the variability decreases). New members don't tend to have access to blue mares and get discouraged by such breedings though because they don't understand why every foal is getting altered. Depending on the stud and mares in question it may be that not a single foal would be good enough to pass the current breeding advice.

Ammit · Oct 25, 2023 4:24 PM

Something that folks may find useful information. Under the proposed system if you have a double boost over cap quality stallion and breed it to a cap-quality mare, cap-quality foals (and only cap-quality foals) would pass breeding advice.

The same double-boosted stallion bred to a perfect foundation mare would have star/gold foals pass breeding advice and only star/gold foals.

SummertreeFarms · Oct 25, 2023 7:08 PM

YEARS ago you mentioned that you might consider nicks/niches in certain lines. Would this work something like that? Or at least guide us in that direction?

Ammit · Oct 25, 2023 7:17 PM

Nope absolutely nothing like that at all. Not something I am interested in exploring as people have a hard enough time figuring out breeding as is.

silverborn · Oct 25, 2023 8:11 PM

This sounds useful for futurity breeding too. I try to keep my mares at similar paper level to the stallion but I can't always manage it exactly. The way you described breeding a ***star to a foundation mare and getting some foals that pass is really interesting.

Summervine · Oct 25, 2023 10:39 PM

I think the proposed change *does* sound more intuitive. As someone who is constantly dealing with how everyday folks interface with technology (in a very very broad sense, like how they understand what a form on a website is asking them), I've been learning a lot about how you get better outcomes when you try to anticipate their actual experience rather than the intended experience. So from that point of view I absolutely endorse changing the test to work more like how most players expect it does.

On a personal level, I've been considering abandoning even breeding entirely, so the idea that this would allow more bootstrap foals to pass because they are better than average is very appealing to me!

HighstormFarm · Oct 26, 2023 4:53 AM

I do think the change would be a good one. As a new member I definitely did not understand how breeding advice worked, I probably still don't, and crossed a higher level stud with lower level mares. I'm sure a lot of new members do that. I did not understand why my foals didn't pass. I did not know that crossing a foundie mare with a Star stallion was never going to give me a passing foal.

I think if how BA works changes then there needs to be an explanation somewhere on how it differs from SBA so members aren't surprised when they upgrade and decide to use SBA on horses or foals and end up with the majority altered.

DevilsParadise · Oct 26, 2023 8:19 AM

I rely on SBA, but I also breed even. I can see how this would really benefit bootstrap breeders, though.

Ammit · Oct 26, 2023 9:18 AM

Because hypotheticals are fine but data is KING I did the actual testing.

Here is the result of creating 600 foals and testing them with the current breeding advice
Perfect Foundation X Perfect Foundation: 58 intact foals, 4% of passing are foals worse than both parents
Cap Quality X Cap Quality: 21 intact foals, 4% of passing are foals worse than both parents
Exceptional Producer X Perfect Foundation: 35 intact foals, all passing foals are better than the dam
5% Boosted Ex-Pro X Perfect Foundation: 25 intact foals, all passing foals are better than Expros
10% Boost Cap X Cap Quality: 0 intact foals
Average Star X Perfect Foundation: 0 intact foals

And I did the same 600 breedings again but this time with my proposed BA changes.
Perfect Foundation X Perfect Foundation: 31 intact foals, all passing foals are better than parents
Cap Quality X Cap Quality: 27 intact foals, 4% of passing are foals worse than both parents
Exceptional Producer X Perfect Foundation: 27 intact foals, 2% of passing foals are worse than the sire
5% Boosted Ex-Pro X Perfect Foundation: 31 intact foals, All foals passing foals are as good as Expro or better
10% Boost Cap X Cap Quality: 24 intact foals, All passing foals are cap
Average Star X Perfect Foundation: 26 intact foals, all passing foals are A/Blue or better

The number of intact foals received is much more predictable. You have fewer passing foals at the lower levels but the same rate of passing at cap level. You actually end up with strict breeding levels of pass rate on the Perfect Foundation X Perfect Foundation breedings, which I think is beneficial. I could tweak the formula a bit but I feel like these passing rates feel right and what people want breeding advice to give them.

whywishesarehorses · Oct 26, 2023 9:56 AM

The data is REALLY helpful! Makes me feel much more positive about this

Ammit · Oct 27, 2023 3:53 AM

Another proposed change.

What if strict breeding advice always passed cap quality foals? That would be the only change to how SBA worked. If you are good enough to be the best the game can produce naturally you get to pass. That way if you are breeding cap-quality horses you can keep a line going using SBA that is only cap quality and not need to fuss around with boosting to make sure of that.

VenemousGiant · Oct 27, 2023 5:50 AM

I like this proposed change because I agree this is definitely how a lot of people think BA works. I also think your idea of always passing cap quality foals is a good idea. It also makes a lot of sense from a gameplay standpoint.

Lallyhop · Oct 27, 2023 6:13 AM

Oh, I love the idea of passing cap quality foals, that’s brilliant!

Ammit · Oct 27, 2023 8:21 AM

This has been pushed live to the game. Have fun testing!

whywishesarehorses · Oct 27, 2023 10:21 AM

Ammit, that is a GREAT little change! Thank you! Gotta go SBA my bootstrap kids

ValkyriePhoenix · Oct 27, 2023 10:32 AM

Yay I’m loving these changes! Thank you Ammit and team!

1999zzz · Oct 27, 2023 10:44 AM

OMG yay, thank you Ammit - you're incredible!

MamaMiaStables · Oct 28, 2023 9:20 AM

I love this. Thank you

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