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Dinascar · Sep 1, 2019 9:11 PM

I think all it is, is that each horse has roughly a 30% chance of dying every year once past the age. As you get older each year you have to roll that dice again at 30% and so on. Likely hood is you will have to be very lucky to keep rolling. :)

pfrsue · Sep 1, 2019 11:03 PM

It's definitely been an interesting project. Here are my numbers:

593 were at risk and 432 survived.

Age - # At Risk (Survived)

25 - 1 (0)
24 – 1 (1)
22 – 2 (2)
21 – 4 (1)
20 – 31 (17)
19 – 62 (33)
18 – 222 (108)
17 – 270 (270)

Spectrum · Sep 3, 2019 2:57 PM

I think this is a good example of a data set size issue. More 17 year olds survive not because they have a better rollover chance, but just because there are more 17 year olds to start with. So you have to adjust your analysis to compensate. But it's still fun to look at data! :)

Here's my golden oldies:

23 - 1 at risk, all survived* (100%)
22 - 2 at risk, all survived (100%)
21 - 0 at risk
20 - 20 at risk, 13 survived (65%)
19 - 20 at risk, 7 survived (35%)
18 - 49 at risk, 28 survived (57.1%)
17 - 41 at risk, all survived (100%)

Overall survival rate: 69.17%

**YES! Prologues, my first horse, lives another year :D :D

B1H Prologues

FeldingFields · Sep 4, 2019 2:11 PM

I have 14 at risk
21 - 1
20 - 1
19 - 3
18 - 7
17 - 2

Results:
21 - 1 (100%)
20 - 0 (0%)
19 - 0 (0%)
18 - 3 (43%)
17 - 2 (100%)

Bailey's made it another season. Lost my Storm Warning.

Ammit · Sep 4, 2019 7:29 PM

Dinascar is correct. :)

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