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Aging Out Research Questions
  • HunterUnderSaddleGirl
    I'm just curious what percentage of horses in the risk zone actually age out. (If I was less busy, and less lazy I would record how many of each age I have to see if the likelihood is the same, but let's just put down how many total). Then we can come back after the first and edit with how many survived

    I'll go first
    Breeder of any and all crazy colored drafts and RH horses.
    15552
    Thanked by 1BorderCollie
  • HunterUnderSaddleGirl
    573 survived of my 830 "at risk"
    69.036% overall survival rate.
    Now I kinda wish I had gone how many I have of each age I had. But oh well. Starting college takes a lot out of you!
    Breeder of any and all crazy colored drafts and RH horses.
    15552
  • pestilenttempest
    I have 584 horses “at risk”

    17 - 378
    18 - 125
    19 - 49
    20 - 30
    21 - 2
  • HomeSweetHomeHomeSweetHome
    I've 5 at risk in November.

    ID: 48042
  • sweetfire
    I have 198 at risk.

    23-1
    22-1
    21-3
    20-6
    19-28
    18-84
    17-75
  • FeldingFieldsFeldingFields
    I have 14 at risk
    21 - 1
    20 - 1
    19 - 3
    18 - 7
    17 - 2
    ~Purveyor of the finest riding horses in Rakia~
    Specializing in dun with the perfect amount of white.

    Always ISOs: Dun Splash Expros, show ponies, Onyx ponies, star riding horse straws
  • Dinascar
    OMG - I have 913 at risk :(
    Breeding brown/liver/black with white spotting drafts. If you ever fancy straws PM me. PM me if you need help with GE.
  • SpectrumSpectrum
    I have 133 horses at risk.

    23 - 1
    22 - 2
    21 - 0
    20 - 20
    19 - 20
    18 - 49
    17 - 41
  • BorderCollie
    Just 1.
    She's 17, if you want the extra data.
    P.S. I love this idea!
    ID# 47068
    Breeding (mostly) warmbloods that are FF Ssty/+Ssty/+ pp with additional fun colors and patterns.
    Licensed for axiom red, and wrong warp; chinchilla; ice 3; onyx; phantom autumn, bats, and spiders.
    Live long and prosper.
  • MariboMaribo
    I have 2510 horses at risk this rollover.
    ID 108
  • HTRanchHTRanch
    153 total:

    20 - 5
    19 - 16
    18 - 49
    17 - 80
    ID 43830
    It's nice to be back! :)
    <>| Era 16 project - belton spotted tobianos |<>
  • WindigoWindigo
    163 total could be lost this rollover.


    Last season I had 137 and only lost 34, I'm pretty sure I got lucky.
  • DinaChill
    193 at risk
    24-1
    21-2
    20-13
    19-33
    18-56
    17-88
    Breeding Tiny Bootstraps
    PM me if you ever fancy any of my stock. Always got good (small) bootstrap studs.
  • HarleysFarm
    I have 55 at risk:

    17 - 17
    18 - 18
    19 - 14
    20 - 6
  • Looper
    19-3
    18-1
    17-1
  • pfrsuepfrsue
    593 at risk

    25 - 1
    24 – 1
    22 – 2
    21 - 4
    20 – 31
    19 – 62
    18 – 222
    17 - 270
    --------------------------------
    pfrsue: 42860
    Pray For Rain Sport Horses - Gestalt Warmbloods and Drafts
  • DevilsParadise
    373 at risk

    20-1
    19-48
    18-140
    17-184
  • ObsidianKitsuneObsidianKitsune
    119 at risk

    17 - 50
    18 - 43
    19 - 22
    20 - 3
    21 - 1
    Producer of Volcanic Glass Drafts. Lapisobsidianus.
    Prices are almost always negotiable.
    On the look out for pointed creates
  • SeaswellSeaswell
    121 at risk

    17 44
    18 46
    19 30
    20 1

    45120
  • GoobanniGoobanni
    439 at risk....
    SIGH!!! :(

    23-3
    22-21
    21-1
    20-25
    19-92
    18-150
    17-147
  • JustaJusta
    256 that are 17 or older.

    17 - 110
    18 - 103
    19 - 32
    20 - 10
    21 - 0
    22 - 1
    ~*~ Justa ~*~
    Main ID# 44842 Alt ID# 54460
    Chronic sufferer of shiny pony syndrome breeding all shades and sizes of Dun. If I can help you with anything, drop me a PM! :)
    she/her
  • SandycreekFarm
    17-207
    18-154
    19-95
    20-14
    21-11
    22-1
    23-1

    Total:443

    Don't forget that the mortality percentage will be affected by how many horses you created and bred each year and how many of each age you added to your stable in other other ways. The base numbers paint an interesting picture, though.
    De gustibus non disputandum. "There's no arguing about tastes."

    SandyCreek Farm: ID# 441
    also playing H&J1 as SandyCreek Acres: ID# 137592
    Thanked by 1FeldingFields
  • SeaswellSeaswell
    I thought each horse just had an individual roughly %20 chance of passing per year. I had no idea our intake affected mortality.
    45120
  • FeldingFieldsFeldingFields
    I had no idea about that either. It would partially explain why last rollover was rough though - I bought some extra pasture and barn space during the anniversary sale, so I grew a lot more than in prior months. I thought it was just unlucky rolls.
    ~Purveyor of the finest riding horses in Rakia~
    Specializing in dun with the perfect amount of white.

    Always ISOs: Dun Splash Expros, show ponies, Onyx ponies, star riding horse straws
  • HunterUnderSaddleGirl
    Really? I had absolutely no idea.
    Breeder of any and all crazy colored drafts and RH horses.
    15552
  • GeneverGinger
    I have 73 at risk.

    17 - 44
    18 - 17
    19 - 7
    20 - 4
    21 - 1

    I'm just getting to the point where I have a larger number of horses at risk. I didn't realize at first how important it was to keep most of my spays for show horses! So the ones I bred myself were mostly too young to be at risk before.
  • SilverAleki
    I have 81 at risk.

    17 - 50
    18 - 29
    19 - 1
    20 - 0
    21 - 0
    22 - 1
    Breeder of Chocolate Chinchilla, Nexus Chinchilla, Satin Chinchilla and DP Mushroom Drafts and Cobs
  • SandycreekFarm
    I'm sorry, that last comment of mine was a bit obscure, I guess. What I was thinking about is that if you created 40 3 year olds 15 game years ago and you created 20 three year olds 16 years ago, this would affect the number of horses at risk, and the percentage of the ones that actually age out at 18 and 19 would be affected by how many had been created to have reached that age. But math is definitely not my thing, so I expect that my logic is rather fuzzy. :\">
    De gustibus non disputandum. "There's no arguing about tastes."

    SandyCreek Farm: ID# 441
    also playing H&J1 as SandyCreek Acres: ID# 137592
    Thanked by 1GeneverGinger
  • HunterUnderSaddleGirl
    Ok, so you think that the older a horse is they get an increased percentage chance of aging out?

    So for example lets say we have 100 horses that are 17.

    20% age out so we have 80 left? And then the next year they are 18 and this time 30% age out so we have 56 left.

    I always thought it was more like the same percentage every year. So we start with our

    100
    then
    80
    then
    64

    But I wasn’t sure, hence this experiment!
    Breeder of any and all crazy colored drafts and RH horses.
    15552
  • SandycreekFarm
    Each horse has a 20% chance of aging out, but I'm not at all sure that means that 20% of the horses of a given age will age out.
    De gustibus non disputandum. "There's no arguing about tastes."

    SandyCreek Farm: ID# 441
    also playing H&J1 as SandyCreek Acres: ID# 137592
  • SandycreekFarm
    As I said, my brain is language oriented, not math oriented, so I can easily get confused about math things.
    De gustibus non disputandum. "There's no arguing about tastes."

    SandyCreek Farm: ID# 441
    also playing H&J1 as SandyCreek Acres: ID# 137592
  • RipshinCreekFarmRipshinCreekFarm
    17 - 85 --> 85 left
    18 - 130 --> 46 left
    19 - 54 --> 25 left
    20 - 33 --> 19 left
    21 - 5 --> 3 left
    22 - 2 --> 1 left
    23 - 2 --> 2 left

    For a grand total of 311
  • Looper
    Three hours short of Phase 2 of this experiment ;) Good luck y'all!
  • SkylightSkylight
    1380 total
  • pestilenttempest
    I have 584 horses “at risk”

    17 - 378
    18 - 125
    19 - 49
    20 - 30
    21 - 2

    476 remaining.


    18 - 378
    19 - 62
    20- 20
    21 - 16
    22- 0
  • JustaJusta
    And the after... I now have 177 of the 256 left.

    18 - 110
    19 - 51
    20 - 12
    21 - 4
    ~*~ Justa ~*~
    Main ID# 44842 Alt ID# 54460
    Chronic sufferer of shiny pony syndrome breeding all shades and sizes of Dun. If I can help you with anything, drop me a PM! :)
    she/her
  • WindigoWindigo
    I lost 48 of 163 at risk. Sorry, I didn't keep up with ages, but my 23 year old didn't make it to 24. Ii had at least 10 that we're over 20.
  • MariboMaribo
    I lost 726 of 2510 horses.
    ID 108
  • Dinascar
    I lost 303 of my 913. :(
    Breeding brown/liver/black with white spotting drafts. If you ever fancy straws PM me. PM me if you need help with GE.
  • DinaChill
    I lost 56 out of 193.
    I now have
    21yr - 7
    20yr - 16
    19yr - 26
    18yr - 88

    Breeding Tiny Bootstraps
    PM me if you ever fancy any of my stock. Always got good (small) bootstrap studs.
  • DinaChill
    Did I really not lose any of my 17 yr olds? Maybe the game hasn't finished yet - I will come back later and re-edit if necessary.
    Breeding Tiny Bootstraps
    PM me if you ever fancy any of my stock. Always got good (small) bootstrap studs.
  • ObsidianKitsuneObsidianKitsune
    I think I remember that Ammit said it may now take a while for the game to go through all of them? I think this change has been active for at least 2 months
    Producer of Volcanic Glass Drafts. Lapisobsidianus.
    Prices are almost always negotiable.
    On the look out for pointed creates
  • SilverAleki
    My results.

    I had 81 at risk. I was left with 64.

    I now have:

    18- 50
    19 - 13
    20 - 0
    21 - 0
    22 - 0
    23 - 1
    Breeder of Chocolate Chinchilla, Nexus Chinchilla, Satin Chinchilla and DP Mushroom Drafts and Cobs
  • sweetfire
    I lost 58 out of 198. Looks like I lost mostly 18 yr olds and my oldest who was 23.
    18-75
    19-47
    20-12
    21-4
    22-2
    23-0
  • AmmitAmmit
    I had no idea our intake affected mortality.


    It doesn't in any way. I have been head-scratching over what she means.
    Need to contact me? Read this first. Only send me a PM for PayPal issues or if I ask you to. Otherwise, make a forum post. You will get a better faster answer by making a post.

    I sometimes get busy and miss things. If your private message, question, etc. gets missed please ping me so I can follow up with you. I am also always happy to explain or clarify. (HAJ does not have a customer service email, please send me a forum message! )


    she/her
    Thanked by 1FeldingFields
  • Looper
    4 out of 5 :( Only my previously 17 yo aged up.
    19-3 risk-3 passed
    18-1 risk-1 passed
    17-1risk -0 passed

    Goodbye Awesome Carlie, Proven Strong, Vaulting Stars and Spotting Versatilily

    Thank you @KaschStables, @NortHarbor, @Lallyhop for some beautiful friends!
    Thanked by 1Lallyhop
  • GeneverGinger
    I lost 16 of my 73 at risk horses.

    17 - was 44, 44 survived to become 18
    18 - was 17, 8 survived to become 19
    19 - was 7, 3 survived to become 20
    20 - was 4, 2 survived to become 21
    21 - was 1, 0 survived

    Edited to fix my math, because things did NOT add up! Assuming my math was right yesterday, it is now correct.
  • HunterUnderSaddleGirl
    Just glanced at some of the big numbers

    I had 573 of 830 survive. So 69.036% survival rate.
    Maribo had 1784 of 2510 survive so 71.075% survival rate.
    Dinascar had 610 of 913 survive so 66.812% survive

    So most of these numbers are kinda close together. There were a lot more variance with the smaller barns as there is less data points.

    I think I would like to do this again next year and this time add up everyones individual age groups to see if that does have an effect. Because I noticed a lot of people did have their 17YO's survive, so if their average was 80% survive, then 18YOs were 70% alive, and so on then it might average out as we saw. Or, more likely and I would guess the average really is just 70% survival.

    I had a homebred 4G make it to 26 this year, and an SS gift make it to 25!
    Breeder of any and all crazy colored drafts and RH horses.
    15552
  • SandycreekFarm
    17--207 -> 18--207
    18--154 -> 19--58
    19--95 -> 20--55
    20--14 -> 21--5
    21--11 -> 22--5
    22--1 -> 23--0
    23--1 -> 24--0
    24--1 -> 25--0

    Total at risk Year 74: 443
    Total Survived to Year 75: 332

    Total lost: 111

    Survival rate: 74.9%
    Mortality rate: ~25.1%

    Yearly mortality rate:
    17 0%
    18 62%
    19 42%
    20 64%
    21 54%
    22, 23, 24 100%
    De gustibus non disputandum. "There's no arguing about tastes."

    SandyCreek Farm: ID# 441
    also playing H&J1 as SandyCreek Acres: ID# 137592
  • BorderCollie
    I only had one 17 year old, and she made it!
    ID# 47068
    Breeding (mostly) warmbloods that are FF Ssty/+Ssty/+ pp with additional fun colors and patterns.
    Licensed for axiom red, and wrong warp; chinchilla; ice 3; onyx; phantom autumn, bats, and spiders.
    Live long and prosper.
  • AmmitAmmit
    Yearly mortality rate:
    It's the same for every age. It never changes.
    Need to contact me? Read this first. Only send me a PM for PayPal issues or if I ask you to. Otherwise, make a forum post. You will get a better faster answer by making a post.

    I sometimes get busy and miss things. If your private message, question, etc. gets missed please ping me so I can follow up with you. I am also always happy to explain or clarify. (HAJ does not have a customer service email, please send me a forum message! )


    she/her
    Thanked by 2Dinascar HunterUnderSaddleGirl
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